Category: *Political musings

Trump’s Inauguration and the Collapse of America

trumps-inaugual-address-shan-durango-telegraph
I stole this cartoon and hope M. Shan and the durango telegraph don’t mind….

Donald J Trump’s presidential inauguration speech today made no attempt to heal the divisions that are tearing apart the United States of America. What so many people in the US and around the world had hoped for—a well considered, compassionate, unifying outreach to citizens and politicians alike was denied. What we and they got was a campaign speech, a jingoistic America-First-all-we-care-about-is-me-and-my-supporters speech, one that implied if-you-don’t-like-it, keep-your-mouth-shut-or-you’ll-wish-you-had.  Trump claimed that, “For too long, a small group in our nation’s Capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished – but the people did not share in its wealth.” Presumably, he’s thinking of politicians, civil servants, presumably anyone in the pre-November 8, 2016 Congress who opposed measures to redistribute wealth by fiscal or other means—largely Republicans who have made anathema any attempt to address inequalities of wealth during the Obama years. As a member of the nation’s 1% of richest citizens, how much does Trump really care about having “the people” share any of his wealth. His tax proposals so far indicate that he intends to protect even more of the income of the 1% than before he assumed the throne!

Trump made no acknowledgement of enormous economic improvements in America during the Obama presidency as the nation was pulled back from the abyss of the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Hyperbole, conflation, misrepresentation and outright lies are tools he wields crazily in his quest to create an image of the US that fits his “only I can fix the mess” pipe dream. America, like virtually all developed countries has problems, but his image of America is as tilted and stretched as a New Yorker caricature. He and his proposed cabinet represent the 1% in America, industrialists, bankers and financiers and investors who, with little or no concern for anyone’s welfare but their own, have built enormous fortunes on the backs of working people. Trump himself has brought in foreign workers, built his businesses with products made outside the USA, sometimes cheated contractors and refused to pay workers, resisted paying any tax he could get away with (it appears from evidence gleaned by investigative journalists and despite — or perhaps corroborated by — his refusal to release his tax returns) regardless of the economic conditions of his country.

trump-snake-oil-salesman-toon-1After reciting his familiar and false dystopian vision of a destitute America, DJT then promised his supporters massive improvements in their lives and spoke as if those benefits would begin immediately. He promised a more militant America. He assured the “forgotten men and women” of America, that “This American carnage stops right here and stops right now.” Like a Costco huckster selling a gallon of stove cleaner with magic ingredients, he offers an oversupply of “cure” to a problem that can be solved with cleaners we already own—and a little elbow grease. People working together. But his view of “the people” is clogged by his insistence that “those people” who support anyone else but him are the problem. There’s no compassion in his words, no recognition that many of the people he claims are struggling did not vote for him in November, no attempt to reach out to them and start healing the divide. Be sure to check again tomorrow, next week, month, or year to see just how many benefits have been realized and by whom!

The majority of Americans and thoughtful, fact-minding observers everywhere do not see the USA the way Trump portrays it and many of his supporters characterize it. (Is ‘characterize’ the right word here?) The President promised those who believe they are victims that “Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families. [I guess that also includes investors, bankers and financiers, and already wealthy industrialists.] We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams. We will build new roads, and highways, and bridges, and airports, and tunnels, and railways all across our wonderful nation. We will get our people off of welfare and back to work – rebuilding our country with American hands and American labor. We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and Hire American.”

Trump is a snake oil salesman, a demagogue with little knowledge of either the nation’s history or how its political system operates. He has no integrity. He can speak out of both sides of his mouth at the same time, shift principles in mid-sentence, as long as he detects that his audience is applauding. On the campaign trail he encouraged his supporters to see Hilary Clinton as a criminal who needed to be locked up. At his Inauguration Luncheon, he thanked President Clinton and HRC for “being there” and asked attendees to give her a standing ovation. Expect this behavioural deviance to happen repeatedly. He’s oblivious to the incongruities.

bankrupt-four-times
Thanks to Shan from the durango telegraph in Durango Colorado. Used without permission.

Despite touting himself as a great “dealer maker,” American’s new president acts as though he can govern alone without having to make compromises with the very legislators whom he blames for creating the chaos he claims American is in. He is in for a rude surprise, I think. While he talks about governing for “all Americans,” he clearly disregards the vast number of American citizens who do not trust him and whom he intends to force into submission on health care, climate change, and tax fairness.

He will learn, however, that voters cannot be cheated as easily as the contractors and labourers and customers and investors he has taken advantage of in business. Politics is not the same as the business of real estate (where he has had colossal failures as well as triumphs) where he is dealing with business people quietly willing to cut their losses and wait for retribution, or to be bought off if that’s the better option. Disillusioned voters, however, can be a powerful force, as the Democrats have discovered, and the Republicans already knew from 2008 and 2012. Voters don’t need to sue, at great expense of money and time. They just have to vote, and they will….

Trump’s message tries to end on a high note: “The time for empty talk is over. Now arrives the hour of action. Do not let anyone tell you it cannot be done. No challenge can match the heart and fight and spirit of America. We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again.”

The President (so hard to describe him thus!) would have us believe that to say a thing is so makes it so, and that claiming that change will happen is the same as witnessing it. So in love with himself, so totally lacking humility, he is as certain to fail as every other arrogant demagogue who has tried to rule an enormous empire without having the majority behind him. He listens only to those who feed his egomania, his narcissism, his ignorance in matters that require great knowledge and profound thought. Think of Ozymandias, king of kings….

shan-durango-telegraph-inauguacide
Thanks again to Shan from Durango, Colorado!

How long will it take principled Republican conservatives to turn on Trump, to throw up their hands in the face of his irresponsibility and intractability? How long until the simple minded among Trump’s beloved “uneducated” supporters wake up and start whining that he’s just another pol who talks like a pro wrestler and is just as phoney. His most devious opponents among the Democrats, along with millions of independent Americans, and global citizens the world over, are already plotting to do all they can to frustrate and provoke him into rash and self-destructive actions in the hope that his downfall will create an opportunity to “make America as great again as it was before he got elected” — before his hubris and the influence and pressure from his evil cronies drove the nation to the brink of disaster.

Some who oppose him will try to “play nice,” even as they cry out for justice and humanity and Christian tolerance. They will try to survive in a toxic political environment—as they have been doing for some time. They will argue, with David Brooks, that “…if people redouble their commitment to constitutional norms and practices, to substance and dignity, this thing is survivable.” In other words, we’ll all get through this, somehow, because ‘American democracy’ will prevail.’ They will be wrong.

In the end, America will be broken, torn apart by brutal incivility and discord, selfish leadership, and harsh and painful payback in all sectors of the American body politic. We are witnessing nothing less than the fall of an Empire and the almost certain re-ascendancy of an even older one — China — in Asia, in Africa, in South America. Citizens of the USA, the Humpty Dumpty of the planet, will discover that it takes far longer to put Humpty back together again than it did to smash their fragile “unity.”

For more on the fact checking of Trump’s address, see:
Fact-checking President Trump’s inaugural address – The Washington Post

Also, please read David Brooks column in the New York Times.
While he’s a much better writer than I, we are in great agreement — except for our conclusions….

The Internal Invasion – The New York Times

And read Paul Krugman in the NYT:
Donald the Unready – The New York Times

And of course this classic from The New Yorker’s David Remnick, written the day after Trump’s election victory—victory in the Electoral College at least….
Presidential Election 2016- An American Tragedy – The New Yorker

 

Time to observe and wait….

Last week, I thought I wanted to continue my musings about the role of urban-rural divide both in the US-eh, and here in Canada. There’s plenty of evidence available now that the inadequate response to rural discontent by Democratic strategists played a very large part in Clinton’s failure to win the presidency. Together with complacency about just how close the polls were—often within the “margin of error”—Clinton’s supporters badly misjudged how narrow their path of victory was.

This week, to my surprise, I just want to park the whole issue until after the inauguration of President TrumpFor anyone who still cares, however,  some links to reports & assessments that I’d like to share.

“…it’s been the perception of white, working class people, poor people, that liberal America has basically ignored them for a really long time, and that’s part of what happened here too. There was a blind spot. They [liberal Americans] counted those people [folks in flyover country] out a long time ago. They either think they’re never going to win with those people, or they don’t want them on their side, even. Because of the stereotypes of rednecks, or working class white people, I don’t think the left has made much of an effort to court them or care about them for a while.”
Trae Crowder, ‘Liberal Redneck’ comedian
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And this from the writer being widely quoted for her assertion that, “….the press takes [Trump] literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally”:

“Republican media strategist Bruce Haynes challenges his Republican and Democratic DC- based peers who are knee-deep in their drinks over Trump’s win to take a step back and look at the map of what Clinton won Tuesday night. “She won the biggest metropolitan areas in the country and a couple of Southwestern states that have seen a huge influx of Mexican immigrants,” he said.

“And that is all she won and not a damn thing else.”

That is, she won the top 10 populations centers where most of the wealth, commerce and power is located — and lost the bulk of America.

This great populist election was all a big pushback against elitism on both sides of the aisle.” Selena Zito, New York Post.

From Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post this assessment entitled,
One of Hillary Clinton’s top aides nailed exactly why she lost”:

“Why did Clinton lose, then? Because no one understood just how much people wanted change and how big a risk they were willing to take to put someone way outside of the political system into the White House.

Consider this:

* Just 38 percent of voters said that Trump was “qualified” to be president (52 percent said the same of Clinton).

* Just 35 percent said Trump had the “temperament to serve effectively as president” (55 percent said Clinton had the right temperament to be president).

* One in three voters said Trump was honest and trustworthy (36 percent said the same of Clinton).

Numbers like those in almost any other election would ensure a Trump loss. If the goal was to disqualify Trump or suggest that he represented too large a risk to take a chance on, numbers like that seemingly prove the Clinton campaign did its job.

But, the desire for change last Tuesday was bigger than any worries Clinton was able to raise about Trump. Four in 10 voters said the most important character trait in deciding their vote was a candidate who “can bring needed change” to Washington. Of that group, Trump won 83 percent to Clinton’s 14 percent — 83 to 14!!!!

Think of it this way: You know a hurricane is coming. You build a 20-foot wall around your property to protect it from the storm surge, believing that the waters have never risen above 14 feet before so you should be plenty safe. Then a 25-foot surge happens.  You’re swamped not because you didn’t see it coming or didn’t plan for it but rather because something ahistoric happened. The past no longer became predictive of the present.

That’s what happened to the Clinton campaign. It was based on the old rules of the road. If your opponent is the change candidate, turn that change against him. Rather than refreshing change, turn it into dangerous change.

That all happened. And Trump still won.

Past is prologue only until it isn’t anymore.”

And also from the Washington Post, the graphic below: 107,000 in three states….
(To enlarge, right click on the graphic and choose “Open in a new tab”).

of-the-more-than-120-million-votes-cast-in-the-2016-election-107000-votes-in-three-states-effectively-decided-the-election

 

On the urban-rural divide in North America

In 1960, in Grade 11, living in a hamlet about 30 miles outside of Winnipeg, I participated actively  in community activities including church. That involvement enabled me as an 16 year-old to attend what was then called the Tuxis and Older Boys Parliament staged annually in the Manitoba legislature building between Christmas and New Year’s.

1960-39th-session
I’m somewhere in the upper right quadrant of this photo.

“The Older Boys’ Parliament program began in Ontario as part of the TUXIS movement (“Training Under Christ In Service”). Its original sponsors included various Protestant churches, such as the United Church of Canada, the Anglican, Baptist, Presbyterian, and Lutheran churches, the Salvation Army, and a variety of service groups such as the YMCA, De Molay and Kiwanis organizations. The movement’s goal was to foster the development of the physical, mental, spiritual and social well-being of the person as inspired by the biblical passage Luke 2:52, which reads: ‘And Jesus increased in wisdom and in years, and in divine and human favour.’ Youth Parliaments, only one of many TUXIS activities, were designed for religious as well as parliamentary training. Though most YPs were at one time part of the TUXIS movement, only the TUXIS Youth Parliament of Alberta retains the name to this day. Notable former Manitoba members from this period include Bill Norrie, Robert Steen, Wally Fox-Decent and Howard Pawley [and, I will add, Lloyd Axworthy].”
(Read about  the evolution of this organization, including its decision to amend its religious and gender restrictions here: http://www.ypmanitoba.ca/about/history/)

Like all members ‘elected’ to this ‘parliament,’ I was required to give a short speech introducing myself and commenting on some issue of importance to me. At first, I had no idea what to talk about. But fairly quickly, I grasped an insight I’d not had before: the deep divide between us who came from the rural areas (“the rubes”) and the “city slickers.” Very nervously, I stood up and spoke my piece about “urban-rural prejudice.” Until our participation at this event, most of the rurals from the Urals, I think, believed we were equal to the urbanites. Discovering that we were seen more as big frogs from small ponds came as a shock, and a cause for concern and even action.

I’m reminded of that time 56 years ago because I’ve been trying to figure out what happened in the US elections of 2016—why the prognostications of so many pundits, and pollsters, and talented, well-educated, broadly informed reporters and editors turned out to be wildly off target. And among the many factors emerging in the post-Trump victory analysis, one element that keeps popping up is that so many of the august predictors simply didn’t know or understand the size, nature, or determination of exurban or rural America. Trump supporters from the Heartland were written off simply as racists and misogynists, “deplorables.”

You know, to just be grossly generalistic, you could put half of Trump’s supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables. Right? The racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic — you name it. And unfortunately there are people like that. And he has lifted them up. He has given voice to their websites that used to only have 11,000 people—now 11 million. He tweets and retweets their offensive hateful mean-spirited rhetoric. Now, some of those folks—they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America.”

The next day Hillary walked back her assertion somewhat: “Last night I was ‘grossly generalistic,’ and that’s never a good idea. I regret saying ‘half’ — that was wrong.”Clinton went on to say [however] that Trump had nevertheless repeatedly engaged in “deplorable” behavior throughout his campaign… “I won’t stop calling out bigotry and racist rhetoric in this campaign….

What many reporters and op-eds failed to give adequate play to, I want to emphasize, was what she stated immediately after the bold faced paragraph above:

But the other basket—and I know this because I see friends from all over America here—I see friends from Florida and Georgia and South Carolina and Texas—as well as, you know, New York and California— but that other basket of people are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they’re just desperate for change. It doesn’t really even matter where it comes from. They don’t buy everything he says, but he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different. They won’t wake up and see their jobs disappear, lose a kid to heroin, feel like they’re in a dead-end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well.

She clearly understood that part of Trump’s supporters, which the urban elite needed to  reach out to and comprehend . I don’t think her supporters heard her either. Clearly, it was that “half” of Trump supporters, especially in the rust belt of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio whose support even one-of-their-own Michael Moore couldn’t cajole, folks who were so pissed off with the liberal elite whether in the Democratic or Republican leadership, that they simply refused to listen to anything she had to say.

Incidentally Bill Clinton, who built his presidency on forging a “…New Democrat” Party [that] co-opted the Reagan appeal to law and order, individualism, and welfare reform, and made the party more attractive to white middle-class Americans” (Miller Center) also understood that “basket” of the electorate that urban elites could not fathom:

“The other guy’s base is what I grew up in,” the former president said during a campaign stop in Fort Myers, Fla. “You know, I’m basically your standard redneck.”

The former president also recounted a moment during the 2016 Democratic primary when he went to campaign for Hillary Clinton in West Virginia—a state that they lost and predicted they would lose long before voting even took place.

“[S]he said, ‘There’s no way that we can carry it,’ and I said, ‘No way,'” Clinton said Tuesday, recounting a conversation he had with his wife about campaigning in Mountain State.

“First of all, [West Virginians] only watch Fox News,” he added to laughter. “But to be fair they think we only care our political base and the people that agree with us culturally. And it’s not true, but that’s what they think.”

Clinton said that when he got to West Virginia, he was met by a bunch of pro-Trump protesters. He said he invited them into his rally and encouraged them to reconsider their support for the GOP nominee.

“If you really believe that you can make America great again, knowing I know what it means as a white southerner,” the former president reportedly told the protesters.

Clinton told his audience Tuesday, “what [Trump]s slogan] means is, ‘I’ll give you the economy we had 15 years ago and the society you had.’ In other words, I’ll move you up on the social totem pole and others down,” Clinton said.

His comments came as part of a larger appeal to his audience to reach out to undecided voters and even pro-Trump supporters to tell them the Democratic nominee’s campaign understands them and wants to include them.

“Don’t engage in our version of all this screaming,” Clinton said. “Go out there and look people in the eye who aren’t going to vote for her and tell them we still want them to be part of America. Tell them we need them (my emphasis).”

“I know how they feel,” he added in reference to angry and frustrated voters, many of who have gravitated towards Trump. “And I’m telling you, the older you get, the worse it is if you look in the mirror every day and you think you can’t do anything to change the future.”

Clinton’s campaign stump speeches often include references to his childhood growing up in Arkansas, including his memories of pre-Civil Rights attitudes and the general unpleasantness of using outhouses. (Washington Examiner)

But most of Hillary’s supporters were deaf to these admissions and admonitions, I think. Whether the Democratic Party, and, for that matter, urban elites in other countries including Canada are willing to unstop their ears and open their eyes and realize that the main conflict in modern democracies is not simply between the top 1% and everybody else is anyone’s guess. Better listening is needed, and soon…. And, yes, among those who opposed Trump but voted for him anyway, and who are now capable of listening to some of us on the other side, there needs to be some unplugging and eyes-opening, too.

To be continued….

 

 

 

I was wrong, and confidence in my ability to analyze has been shattered….

Yesterday, I wrote on this blog:

“I have questioned whether or not a large enough number of Americans had the wherewithal to make a rational choice. But this week, as the end drew nigh, I have relaxed, reassured by the polls, particularly Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com which correctly forecast the last two presidential elections. I am confident that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, the first woman president of the US-eh. In about 12 hours (8:00 PT/11:00 ET), we’ll have a much clearer idea.”

And all day long, I reassured the love of my life that things would turn out okay, at least numerically.

It’s clear on the morning after, that as far as the the popular vote is concerned, Trump didn’t win. Latest totals Wednesday morning show Clinton, thanks to large pluralities in heavily populated New York and California, polled more than 59,647,621 votes to Trump’s 59,438,580. Her margin in this measure is likely to increase as absentee and mail-in ballots are finally counted.

Click graphics to enlarge….

CNN graphic on left Politico graphic on right

But where they really count, the numbers in the Electoral college, in the number of states Trump “won,” and in the number of rural Americans persuaded, Clinton trailed badly.
ana-marie-cox-l

As Ana Marie Cox commented on Trevor Noah’s (live) Daily Show—even before Trump’s numbers passed the 270 EC vote threshold, many American “…working class white men… have traded their health care and their economic opportunity for the right to be more a little more explicit in their racism….” (Comedy Central, Nov. 8, 2016).

It’s unlikely that the results can be explained this easily. There will be a great deal of thoughtful analysis devoted, as there was to Mitt Romney’s loss to Obama in 2012, to understanding why Clinton failed to persuade enough Americans that she deserved their support.

I’ll be studying carefully, too.
For the moment, that’s all I can do.

November 8, 2016: day of reckoning

2016-presidential-candidates

The original twenty-two candidates eventually reduced to two….

Finally, Americans go to the polls for the final time in their federal elections, including the choice of a new president of their nation.

We have been following (addicted to) the election race since mid July. For me, the turning point occurred when the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates chose their vice-presidential running mates. On July 23, Hillary Clinton’s choice of Tim Kaine gave me great hope. Of the four candidates at the top of the two major parties’ tickets, I think Kaine is the best hope of the kind of decent, capable, experienced public servant that American has seen in a long time. Not flashy or charismatic, but solidly grounded in service from his days as a Catholic missionary in Honduras through his successful forays into municipal and state politics that saw him become a councilman, then mayor or Richmond, VA, and later lieutenant governor and governor of the state, Kaine has displayed integrity and sound, thoughtful leadership.

the-finalists
Democrats’ Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton; Republicans’ Donald Trump, Mike Pence

Since July, there have been far too many campaign developments to detail here. My faith in the Clinton-Kaine ticket has certainly been tested, not by anything attractive in the Trump-Pence campaign, but by the behaviour of so many supporters of the latter “team.” I have questioned whether or not a large enough number of Americans had the wherewithal to make a rational choice. But this week, as the end drew nigh, I have relaxed, reassured by the polls, particularly Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com which correctly forecast the last two presidential elections. I am confident that Hillary Clinton will be the next president, the first woman president of the US-eh. In about 12 hours (8:00 PT/11:00 ET), we’ll have a much clearer idea.

161108-who-will-win-the-presidency-538-final

Of course, the conclusion of the election will NOT be the end of the story. Whether the next few weeks represent a denouement in this drama, or simply the third act in a five-act play remains to be seen. Stay tuned….